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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 10-05-24 at 4:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-05-24 70   71 43   46 70   72 51   54 67   66 42   43
10-04-24 74 74.5 76 54 54.9 56 71   73 43   46 70   74 50   57
10-03-24 72 72.7 76 50 47.7 53 75 74.5 78 53 54.9 57 71   72 42   45
10-02-24 67 67.2 68 51 58.4 55 73 72.7 76 51 47.7 53 74 74.5 77 52 54.9 57
10-01-24 71 71.9 73 50 52.2 55 68 67.2 66 51 58.4 53 74 72.7 75 51 47.7 52
09-30-24 73 77.3 76 51 52.4 53 70 71.9 73 51 52.2 49 68 67.2 70 50 58.4 52
09-29-24 69 69.8 72 50 53.6 56 74 77.3 75 52 52.4 52 70 71.9 72 49 52.2 52
09-28-24 74 76.6 74 54 61.7 56 68 69.8 65 52 53.6 56 75 77.3 75 52 52.4 52
09-27-24 59 74.8 78 75 58.3 57 56 76.6 77 73 61.7 56 55 69.8 73 71 53.6 53
09-26-24 55 69.4 67 69 60.8 58 54 74.8 75 74 58.3 58 55 76.6 68 72 61.7 57
09-25-24 66 63.4 72 54 57.7 57 70 69.4 69 54 60.8 57 74 74.8 72 53 58.3 58
09-24-24 68 67.4 71 50 55.5 50 66 63.4 67 53 57.7 57 72 69.4 72 54 60.8 53
09-23-24 65 67.3 71 45 45.7 50 65 67.4 72 55 55.5 53 65 63.4 62 55 57.7 59
09-22-24 49 70.5 74 73 45.8 47 43 67.3 70 69 45.7 48 46 67.4 71 69 55.5 53
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 6 4 3 5 6 5 5 3 6 2 1 5
% Succ 46.2   30.8 23.1   38.5 50.0   41.7 41.7   25.0 54.5   18.2 9.1   45.5
Ave Error 5.2   2.9 6.7   2.9 6.7   2.3 6.5   2.8 6.3   2.9 6.7   2.8
Net Error -4.7   1.9 1.6   -0.1 -5.9   0.9 2.4   -0.8 -5.2   0.2 1.3   -1.4
Std Dev 5.2   1.9 4.5   1.7 7.2   1.4 4.4   1.8 6.5   1.9 4.4   2.0



Updated: 10-04-24 at 4:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-04-24 53   53 71   73 41   47 71   73 52   57 67   66
10-03-24 49 47.7 53 75 72.7 77 53   57 71   72 42   45 70   72
10-02-24 68 57.7 55 51 67.2 76 73 47.7 53 51 72.7 77 75   58 53   72
10-01-24 71 48.9 53 51 71.9 65 69 57.7 53 51 67.2 75 73 47.7 53 51 72.7 78
09-30-24 73 51.4 54 50 77.3 72 71 48.9 51 50 71.9 72 67 57.7 55 48 67.2 76
09-29-24 55 53.6 54 75 69.8 75 55 51.4 54 75 77.3 71 55 48.9 54 65 71.9 68
09-28-24 53 60.9 57 69 76.6 64 52 53.6 56 75 69.8 77 52 51.4 54 70 77.3 62
09-27-24 56 57.8 58 74 74.8 74 54 60.9 57 71 76.6 64 52 53.6 58 74 69.8 74
09-26-24 56 60.6 59 75 69.4 75 56 57.8 57 71 74.8 70 53 60.9 56 71 76.6 69
09-25-24 57 57.7 56 70 63.4 67 52 60.6 60 72 69.4 73 49 57.8 59 73 74.8 72
09-24-24 66 55.0 50 52 67.4 66 65 57.7 56 52 63.4 67 71 60.6 56 54 69.4 72
09-23-24 48 45.7 47 69 67.3 71 50 55.0 50 66 67.4 65 54 57.7 57 73 63.4 72
09-22-24 47 45.7 46 67 70.5 70 47 45.7 47 69 67.3 71 51 55.0 52 64 67.4 64
09-21-24 49 47.8 52 72 75.0 74 48 45.7 46 68 70.5 71 50 45.7 51 65 67.3 67
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 6 6 2 4 3 5 2 2 2 2 1 1
% Succ 46.2   46.2 15.4   30.8 25.0   41.7 16.7   16.7 18.2   18.2 9.1   9.1
Ave Error 6.7   2.6 8.9   4.6 8.1   2.6 8.0   4.7 7.5   3.6 8.9   5.7
Net Error 4.4   0.3 -5.6   0.2 4.1   -0.2 -6.4   0.4 2.7   0.7 -6.3   -0.3
Std Dev 7.1   1.7 7.8   3.2 7.2   1.5 7.0   3.0 6.1   1.2 6.1   3.4



Updated: 10-04-24 at 7:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High
Date WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
10-04-24 55   54 78   72 66   46 73   72 44   54 54   64
10-03-24 55 56.3 52 78 72.7 76 66   56 73   72 44   45 54   72
10-02-24 55 54.1 54 78 67.2 76 66 56.3 53 73 72.7 77 44   57 54   72
10-01-24 55 59.8 52 78 71.9 65 66 54.1 54 73 67.2 75 44 56.3 53 54 72.7 77
09-30-24 55 59.8 55 78 77.3 73 66 59.8 52 73 71.9 70 44 54.1 56 54 67.2 76
09-29-24 55 56.9 56 78 69.8 76 66 59.8 55 73 77.3 73 44 59.8 51 54 71.9 72
09-28-24 55 57.5 58 78 76.6 72 66 56.9 56 73 69.8 77 44 59.8 57 54 77.3 73
09-27-24 55 66.9 55 78 74.8 75 66 57.5 56 73 76.6 69 44 56.9 56 54 69.8 74
09-26-24 55 59.2 59 78 69.4 77 66 66.9 59 73 74.8 68 44 57.5 56 54 76.6 67
09-25-24 55 63.3 55 78 63.4 67 66 59.2 58 73 69.4 73 44 66.9 59 54 74.8 66
09-24-24 55 58.2 51 78 67.4 70 66 63.3 57 73 63.4 69 44 59.2 59 54 69.4 73
09-23-24 55 55.6 48 78 67.3 71 66 58.2 51 73 67.4 65 44 63.3 56 54 63.4 73
09-22-24 55 56.8 47 78 70.5 70 66 55.6 50 73 67.3 70 44 58.2 52 54 67.4 62
09-21-24 55 54.3 52 78 75.0 74 66 56.8 47 73 70.5 70 44 55.6 49 54 67.3 70
Results WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
# Succ 6 4 2 3 1 4 3 2 0 4 0 1
% Succ 46.2   30.8 15.4   23.1 8.3   33.3 25.0   16.7     36.4     9.1
Ave Error 3.6   5.1 7.0   4.1 7.5   4.7 3.9   4.6 14.9   4.3 16.7   5.6
Net Error -3.4   -5.0 7.0   1.4 7.3   -4.7 2.3   0.6 -14.9   -4.0 -16.7   0.5
Std Dev 3.1   3.8 3.8   2.5 2.9   2.7 2.3   1.9 3.0   2.7 3.2   2.6