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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 12-04-24 at 4:55 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-04-24 32   35 28   30 34   35 19   22 27   29 15   19
12-03-24 35 37.0 36 16 12.1 17 34   36 29   30 35   35 19   24
12-02-24 17 35.7 34 34 16.6 18 17 37.0 35 36 12.1 18 17   37 35   30
12-01-24 33 34.7 33 16 18.5 18 35 35.7 35 16 16.6 20 36 37.0 35 17 12.1 22
11-30-24 35 35.9 36 16 17.0 18 32 34.7 33 15 18.5 18 33 35.7 35 16 16.6 21
11-29-24 40 42.6 40 20 20.5 21 37 35.9 36 16 17.0 19 35 34.7 34 17 18.5 20
11-28-24 40 39.5 39 28 35.7 30 41 42.6 38 21 20.5 23 38 35.9 36 17 17.0 21
11-27-24 45 46.7 46 35 28.8 35 40 39.5 37 25 35.7 31 45 42.6 39 25 20.5 24
11-26-24 52 47.4 46 29 30.4 31 46 46.7 44 31 28.8 35 43 39.5 38 29 35.7 34
11-25-24 29 47.4 49 47 30.2 38 32 47.4 49 52 30.4 33 29 46.7 45 46 28.8 37
11-24-24 40 45.5 45 45 35.3 31 28 47.4 48 48 30.2 37 32 47.4 51 52 30.4 32
11-23-24 45 46.1 43 34 41.6 37 46 45.5 44 29 35.3 30 50 47.4 49 34 30.2 42
11-22-24 36 45.0 41 41 34.5 36 34 46.1 43 42 41.6 38 36 45.5 44 45 35.3 31
11-21-24 45 48.7 46 32 38.3 36 41 45.0 47 31 34.5 35 43 46.1 42 35 41.6 35
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 6 9 3 6 6 8 4 3 2 8 3 3
% Succ 46.2   69.2 23.1   46.2 50.0   66.7 33.3   25.0 18.2   72.7 27.3   27.3
Ave Error 5.4   1.7 6.7   3.2 6.6   1.9 7.7   3.7 5.5   1.9 7.0   5.2
Net Error -4.6   -1.4 2.6   0.5 -6.2   -1.2 3.4   1.3 -3.5   -1.0 4.2   2.9
Std Dev 6.0   1.1 5.2   2.4 7.3   1.1 8.0   1.8 5.5   1.1 6.4   2.6



Updated: 12-04-24 at 4:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
12-04-24 28   31 34   35 19   22 27   28 15   18 32   32
12-03-24 16 11.9 16 34 37.0 35 29   30 35   34 19   21 26   28
12-02-24 34 16.6 17 17 35.7 35 36 11.9 17 16 37.0 36 38   30 27   34
12-01-24 15 18.5 17 36 34.7 34 16 16.6 18 35 35.7 35 16 11.9 20 36 37.0 37
11-30-24 15 16.1 17 33 35.9 33 15 18.5 18 35 34.7 35 16 16.6 19 35 35.7 36
11-29-24 41 19.2 20 20 42.6 35 37 16.1 19 16 35.9 34 35 18.5 18 15 34.7 35
11-28-24 27 32.8 29 42 39.5 40 21 19.2 23 38 42.6 36 17 16.1 20 35 35.9 34
11-27-24 35 28.8 32 36 46.7 38 29 32.8 29 43 39.5 39 21 19.2 23 39 42.6 35
11-26-24 30 30.4 32 43 47.4 45 31 28.8 35 40 46.7 39 29 32.8 34 42 39.5 43
11-25-24 33 30.2 34 52 47.4 48 29 30.4 31 46 47.4 43 31 28.8 36 43 46.7 41
11-24-24 28 34.5 29 48 45.5 47 34 30.2 36 50 47.4 52 30 30.4 32 46 47.4 44
11-23-24 35 41.6 37 44 46.1 44 27 34.5 30 50 45.5 47 35 30.2 37 51 47.4 50
11-22-24 32 34.5 36 45 45.0 43 34 41.6 38 46 46.1 44 28 34.5 30 51 45.5 47
11-21-24 44 36.9 37 32 48.7 38 43 34.5 36 33 45.0 40 43 41.6 33 33 46.1 40
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 7 2 7 3 4 4 6 5 3 4 5
% Succ 15.4   53.8 15.4   53.8 25.0   33.3 33.3   50.0 45.5   27.3 36.4   45.5
Ave Error 6.6   2.4 7.1   3.3 7.1   3.3 6.4   3.0 3.9   4.4 5.1   3.0
Net Error 2.5   0.1 -5.4   -2.9 3.1   1.2 -4.6   -2.0 1.9   1.9 -3.0   -1.5
Std Dev 6.0   1.6 6.7   2.6 7.3   1.8 6.6   2.3 4.2   2.3 5.1   2.2



Updated: 12-03-24 at 7:55 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High
Date WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
12-03-24 55   16 78   35 66   30 73   34 44   22 54   28
12-02-24 55 22.5 17 78 35.7 35 66   17 73   36 44   30 54   34
12-01-24 55 25.2 17 78 34.7 35 66 22.5 20 73 35.7 36 44   20 54   37
11-30-24 55 23.7 17 78 35.9 33 66 25.2 17 73 34.7 35 44 22.5 20 54 35.7 36
11-29-24 55 25.1 20 78 42.6 35 66 23.7 19 73 35.9 34 44 25.2 18 54 34.7 35
11-28-24 55 31.7 29 78 39.5 40 66 25.1 22 73 42.6 35 44 23.7 20 54 35.9 34
11-27-24 55 36.0 29 78 46.7 39 66 31.7 29 73 39.5 39 44 25.1 24 54 42.6 35
11-26-24 55 28.8 33 78 47.4 45 66 36.0 35 73 46.7 39 44 31.7 32 54 39.5 42
11-25-24 55 35.1 31 78 47.4 47 66 28.8 31 73 47.4 43 44 36.0 35 54 46.7 40
11-24-24 55 30.8 29 78 45.5 47 66 35.1 37 73 47.4 49 44 28.8 32 54 47.4 45
11-23-24 55 38.6 37 78 46.1 44 66 30.8 30 73 45.5 48 44 35.1 37 54 47.4 50
11-22-24 55 43.0 36 78 45.0 43 66 38.6 38 73 46.1 44 44 30.8 30 54 45.5 47
11-21-24 55 35.6 36 78 48.7 38 66 43.0 36 73 45.0 40 44 38.6 33 54 46.1 40
11-20-24 55 40.8 42 78 62.3 47 66 35.6 36 73 48.7 45 44 43.0 36 54 45.0 42
Results WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
# Succ 0 4 0 6 0 5 0 5 1 5 0 4
% Succ     30.8     46.2     41.7     41.7 9.1   45.5     36.4
Ave Error 22.9   4.3 33.6   4.2 34.7   2.9 30.1   3.1 13.0   3.1 11.6   3.2
Net Error 22.9   -3.4 33.6   -3.8 34.7   -2.2 30.1   -2.4 13.0   -2.1 11.6   -1.9
Std Dev 6.0   2.3 4.9   3.3 5.1   2.0 4.6   2.4 4.7   1.8 4.5   2.2